Pärnu 2–3 Tartu Kalev: Result & Stats | Esiliiga B

Pärnu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Tartu Kalev

10/24/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 33Pärnu Rehepapi kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pärnu29%

×Draw19%

Tartu Kalev52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PärnuExpected goals in this matchTartu Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.46

Pärnu

1.82

Tartu Kalev

2.46

Tartu Kalev creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 45 away

1.67

creates per match

2.02

2.89

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Pärnu

1.67

Tartu Kalev

2.02

allows per match

Pärnu

2.89

Tartu Kalev

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Tartu Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw

48%

Pärnu or Tartu Kalev

81%

Draw or Tartu Kalev

71%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+

14%

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals

84%

Pärnu 2+ goals

54%

Pärnu 3+ goals

27%

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

91%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

70%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)

36%

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

Tartu Kalev away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.67 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.82

Tartu Kalev attack 2.02 + Pärnu defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pärnu scores more

29%

level

19%

Tartu Kalev scores more

52%

Tartu Kalev at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff