Tartu Kalev 0–1 Johvi Phoenix: Result & Stats

Tartu Kalev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Johvi Phoenix

8/30/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 26Ulenurme stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tartu Kalev50%

×Draw21%

Johvi Phoenix29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu KalevExpected goals in this matchJohvi Phoenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.60

Tartu Kalev

2.14

Johvi Phoenix

1.60

Tartu Kalev creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

2.17

creates per match

1.71

1.50

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Tartu Kalev

2.17

Johvi Phoenix

1.71

allows per match

Tartu Kalev

1.50

Johvi Phoenix

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Johvi Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Johvi Phoenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw

71%

Tartu Kalev or Johvi Phoenix

79%

Draw or Johvi Phoenix

50%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

29%

Johvi Phoenix wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

88%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

63%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

36%

Johvi Phoenix 1+ goals

80%

Johvi Phoenix 2+ goals

47%

Johvi Phoenix 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

63%

Johvi Phoenix (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Johvi Phoenix away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Johvi Phoenix defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.14

Johvi Phoenix attack 1.71 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more

50%

level

21%

Johvi Phoenix scores more

29%

Tartu Kalev at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff