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Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev — Esiliiga B 2026

Johvi Phoenix
Johvi Phoenix
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
5/1/2026Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Johvi Phoenix49%
×Draw19%
Tartu Kalev32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johvi Phoenix
2.54
Tartu Kalev
2.05

Johvi Phoenix creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Johvi Phoenix
3.11
Tartu Kalev
2.02

allows per match

Johvi Phoenix
2.09
Tartu Kalev
1.98

finishing

Johvi Phoenix+0.00on par
Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johvi Phoenix ↓

Tartu Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Johvi Phoenix or draw
68%
Johvi Phoenix or Tartu Kalev
81%
Draw or Tartu Kalev
51%

Winning margin

Johvi Phoenix wins by 2+
30%
Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Johvi Phoenix 1+ goals
92%
Johvi Phoenix 2+ goals
72%
Johvi Phoenix 3+ goals
46%
Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
87%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
61%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Johvi Phoenix (draw refunded)
60%
Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johvi Phoenix at home — creates 3.11, concedes 2.09 · 46 matches

Tartu Kalev away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johvi Phoenix attack 3.11 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tartu Kalev attack 2.02 + Johvi Phoenix defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Johvi Phoenix scores more
49%
level
19%
Tartu Kalev scores more
32%

Johvi Phoenix at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Johvi Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev

Johvi Phoenix beat Tartu Kalev 4-3 in Esiliiga B on May 1, 2026.