Taroona 9–1 Glenorchy Knights U21: Result & Stats

Taroona

FT

9 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Glenorchy Knights U21

7/13/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 14Sherburd Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Taroona84%

×Draw9%

Glenorchy Knights U217%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaroonaExpected goals in this matchGlenorchy Knights U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.78

1.50

Taroona

4.78

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.50

Taroona creates 219% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

3.96

creates per match

1.07

1.92

allows per match

5.60

creates per match

Taroona

3.96

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.07

allows per match

Taroona

1.92

Glenorchy Knights U21

5.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taroona+0.00on par

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taroona ↓

Glenorchy Knights U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

84%16%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

Taroona or draw

93%

Taroona or Glenorchy Knights U21

91%

Draw or Glenorchy Knights U21

16%

Winning margin

Taroona wins by 2+

70%

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Taroona 1+ goals

99%

Taroona 2+ goals

94%

Taroona 3+ goals

82%

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

78%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

44%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Taroona (draw refunded)

92%

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taroona at home — creates 3.96, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Glenorchy Knights U21 away — creates 1.07, concedes 5.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taroona attack 3.96 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 5.60 → ÷2 → 4.78

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 1.07 + Taroona defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Taroona scores more

84%

level

9%

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

7%

Taroona at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff