Glenorchy Knights U21 1–1 Taroona: Result & Stats

Glenorchy Knights U21

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Taroona

4/20/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 5KGV Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2116%

×Draw14%

Taroona70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glenorchy Knights U21Expected goals in this matchTaroona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

3.71

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.80

Taroona

3.71

Taroona creates 106% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

2.05

creates per match

2.96

4.47

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.05

Taroona

2.96

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

4.47

Taroona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Taroona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

Taroona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw

30%

Glenorchy Knights U21 or Taroona

86%

Draw or Taroona

84%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

7%

Taroona wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

83%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

54%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

27%

Taroona 1+ goals

97%

Taroona 2+ goals

87%

Taroona 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

18%

Taroona (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

Taroona away — creates 2.96, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + Taroona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.80

Taroona attack 2.96 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

16%

level

14%

Taroona scores more

70%

Taroona at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff