Tarazona 4–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats | League #876

Tarazona

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tudelano

Marcos Mendes 89', 74', 16'

Santamaría 36' (OG)

Oier Sarriegi 70'

9/11/2022

League #876 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tarazona63%

×Draw20%

Tudelano17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.07

Tarazona

2.23

Tudelano

1.07

Tarazona creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

3.33

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Tarazona

3.33

Tudelano

1.14

allows per match

Tarazona

1.00

Tudelano

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

83%

Tarazona or Tudelano

80%

Draw or Tudelano

37%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

40%

Tudelano wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

89%

Tarazona 2+ goals

65%

Tarazona 3+ goals

38%

Tudelano 1+ goals

66%

Tudelano 2+ goals

29%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

79%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 3.33 + Tudelano defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.23

Tudelano attack 1.14 + Tarazona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tarazona scores more

63%

level

20%

Tudelano scores more

17%

Tarazona at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Marcos Mendes

36'

SantamaríaOwn goal

55'

Pol Prats← Patxi Dávila

63'

Alberto Fernández← Moussa Bandeh

67'

Adrián Ruiz← P. Mbodji

67'

Lluc Carrera← Aitor Agirre

70'

Oier Sarriegi

71'

J. Gnali← Néstor Salinas

74'

Marcos Mendes

85'

Gabriel Escribano← Adri Carrasco

89'

Marcos Mendes

90+2'

Diego Villamayor← Iván Martínez

Tarazona

Tudelano

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: Javi Moreno

71'▲J. Gnali←▼Néstor Salinas

85'▲Gabriel Escribano←▼Adri Carrasco

90+2'▲Diego Villamayor←▼Iván Martínez

Tarazona substitutes

GnaliEscribanoVillamayorLamanaLlamasCoscolínGracia

Manager: Oriol Riera

55'▲Pol Prats←▼Patxi Dávila

63'▲Alberto Fernández←▼Moussa Bandeh

67'▲Adrián Ruiz←▼P. Mbodji

67'▲Lluc Carrera←▼Aitor Agirre

Tudelano substitutes

PratsFernándezRuizCarreraPradosTelletxeaGarcía