Tarazona 0–0 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Tarazona

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tudelano

11/1/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tarazona43%

×Draw28%

Tudelano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Tarazona

1.29

Tudelano

1.00

Tarazona creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.09

creates per match

1.04

0.97

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tarazona

1.09

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Tarazona

0.97

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

71%

Tarazona or Tudelano

72%

Draw or Tudelano

57%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

20%

Tudelano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

72%

Tarazona 2+ goals

37%

Tarazona 3+ goals

14%

Tudelano 1+ goals

63%

Tudelano 2+ goals

26%

Tudelano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

60%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.09 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Tarazona defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tarazona scores more

43%

level

28%

Tudelano scores more

29%

Tarazona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Casi← Lucho Sánchez

58'

Rodri Flórez← Sergio Sánchez

67'

Pepo← Iñaki Santiago

72'

Javier Rudi← Rodrigo Sanz

82'

Pablo Roig← Álex Gualda

87'

Juanma González← Rodri

Tarazona

Tudelano

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Navarro

58'▲Casi←▼Lucho Sánchez

58'▲Rodri Flórez←▼Sergio Sánchez

67'▲Pepo←▼Iñaki Santiago

87'▲Juanma González←▼Rodri

Tarazona substitutes

CasiFlórezPepoGonzálezJavierÁlvarezBoschCompany

Manager: Nacho Martín

72'▲Javier Rudi←▼Rodrigo Sanz

82'▲Pablo Roig←▼Álex Gualda

Tudelano substitutes

RudiRoigSocorroMeseguerRoyoDelgadoJiménezGassama

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Tarazona 0–0 Tudelano

Tarazona and Tudelano drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.

Tarazona vs Tudelano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Tarazona 0–0 Tudelano