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Tarazona vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
CANC
00:00
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tarazona78%
×Draw16%
San Juan Mozarrifar6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
2.20
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.42

Tarazona creates 424% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tarazona
2.31
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Tarazona
0.38
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
94%
Tarazona or San Juan Mozarrifar
84%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
22%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
54%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
89%
Tarazona 2+ goals
64%
Tarazona 3+ goals
37%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
34%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
7%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
93%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 2.31 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.20

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Tarazona defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Tarazona scores more
78%
level
16%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
6%

Tarazona at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tarazona face San Juan Mozarrifar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Tarazona hosting San Juan Mozarrifar. Match starts April 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tarazona host San Juan Mozarrifar at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.