San Juan Mozarrifar 0–3 Tarazona: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tarazona

Alberto Escarda 81'

Rodrigo González 70'

Iñaki Santiago 44'

8/25/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar19%

×Draw22%

Tarazona59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.89

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.97

Tarazona

1.89

Tarazona creates 95% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

1.87

1.90

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Tarazona

1.87

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Tarazona

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Tarazona →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

41%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Tarazona

78%

Draw or Tarazona

81%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Tarazona wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

62%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

25%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

85%

Tarazona 2+ goals

56%

Tarazona 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

24%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Tarazona away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Tarazona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tarazona attack 1.87 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

19%

level

22%

Tarazona scores more

59%

Tarazona at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Iñaki Santiago

46'

Dani Marqués← Falo Burriel

53'

Ángel Acerete← Israel García

68'

Javi Pérez← Rupérez

70'

Rodrigo González

76'

Alberto Escarda← Jony Ortiz

81'

Alberto Escarda

82'

Pepo← Quique Rausell

San

Tarazona

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Dani Marqués←▼Falo Burriel

53'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Israel García

68'▲Javi Pérez←▼Rupérez

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

MarquésAceretePérez

Manager: David Navarro

76'▲Alberto Escarda←▼Jony Ortiz

82'▲Pepo←▼Quique Rausell

Tarazona substitutes

EscardaPepo