Tarazona 2–1 Izarra: Result & Stats

Tarazona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Izarra

1/23/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tarazona49%

×Draw28%

Izarra23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchIzarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.85

Tarazona

1.38

Izarra

0.85

Tarazona creates 62% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.09

creates per match

0.74

0.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tarazona

1.09

Izarra

0.74

allows per match

Tarazona

0.97

Izarra

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Izarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

77%

Tarazona or Izarra

72%

Draw or Izarra

51%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

24%

Izarra wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

75%

Tarazona 2+ goals

40%

Tarazona 3+ goals

16%

Izarra 1+ goals

57%

Izarra 2+ goals

21%

Izarra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

68%

Izarra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.09 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Izarra attack 0.74 + Tarazona defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tarazona scores more

49%

level

28%

Izarra scores more

23%

Tarazona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff