Izarra 0–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Izarra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tarazona

10/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Izarra48%

×Draw28%

Tarazona25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IzarraExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.89

Izarra

1.36

Tarazona

0.89

Izarra creates 53% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

0.56

1.22

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Izarra

1.41

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Izarra

1.22

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Izarra or draw

75%

Izarra or Tarazona

72%

Draw or Tarazona

52%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+

23%

Tarazona wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals

74%

Izarra 2+ goals

39%

Izarra 3+ goals

16%

Tarazona 1+ goals

59%

Tarazona 2+ goals

22%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)

66%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 1.41 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Izarra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Izarra scores more

48%

level

28%

Tarazona scores more

25%

Izarra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff