Tarazona 1–0 Antequera: Result & Stats

Tarazona

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Antequera

Martinez Chechu 90'

9/7/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tarazona40%

×Draw29%

Antequera31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchAntequera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.01

Tarazona

1.18

Antequera

1.01

Tarazona creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

1.09

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Tarazona

1.09

Antequera

1.05

allows per match

Tarazona

0.97

Antequera

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Antequera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

69%

Tarazona or Antequera

71%

Draw or Antequera

60%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

17%

Antequera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

69%

Tarazona 2+ goals

33%

Tarazona 3+ goals

12%

Antequera 1+ goals

64%

Antequera 2+ goals

27%

Antequera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

56%

Antequera (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.09 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Antequera attack 1.05 + Tarazona defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tarazona scores more

40%

level

29%

Antequera scores more

31%

Tarazona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

24'

52'

55'

63'

A. Jimenez← I. Alonso

63'

Vaquero← D. Rodriguez

70'

A. Gene← D. Clavijo

70'

M. Bassele← J. Biabiany

74'

C. Nieto← S. Armero

82'

D. Soto← J. Gomez

82'

D. Cubillas← Aguero

89'

V. Ajouaou← Luismi Gutierrez

90'

Martinez Chechu↳ D. Soto

Tarazona

Antequera

1

20

15

4

5

6

22

8

▼

Clavijo

7

▼

Biabiany

10

▼

Gutierrez

11

▼

1

2

5

4

3

⚽

Chechu

23

▼

Rodriguez

15

▼

Alonso

6

Carrasco

11

▼

Gomez

10

▼

Aguero

19

▼

Armero

Manager: Juanma Barrero

63'▲A. Jimenez←▼I. Alonso

63'▲Vaquero←▼D. Rodriguez

74'▲C. Nieto←▼S. Armero

82'▲D. Soto←▼J. Gomez

82'▲D. Cubillas←▼Aguero

Tarazona substitutes

7Soto9Cubillas13AmigoJimenez21Nieto22Vaquero27Fita

Manager: Javier Medina

55'▲L. Rivas←▼O. Siddiki

70'▲A. Gene←▼D. Clavijo

70'▲M. Bassele←▼J. Biabiany

89'▲V. Ajouaou←▼Luismi Gutierrez

Antequera substitutes

13Alcover12Ajouaou14Sanchez16Gene17Gonzalez18Bassele21Chit23Acena24Rivas