Antequera 2–3 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Antequera

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tarazona

Luismi Gutierrez 55', 53' (pen)

Aguero 90'

J. Delmas 60'

S. Armero 34'

4/4/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antequera50%

×Draw27%

Tarazona23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntequeraExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.88

Antequera

1.43

Tarazona

0.88

Antequera creates 63% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

1.54

creates per match

0.56

1.19

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Antequera

1.54

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Antequera

1.19

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Antequera or draw

77%

Antequera or Tarazona

73%

Draw or Tarazona

50%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+

25%

Tarazona wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals

76%

Antequera 2+ goals

42%

Antequera 3+ goals

17%

Tarazona 1+ goals

59%

Tarazona 2+ goals

22%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)

68%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Antequera scores more

50%

level

27%

Tarazona scores more

23%

Antequera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Ramos← J. Aspra

34'

S. Armero

43'

Aguero← T. Ramon

45'

M. Trilles

51'

Aguero

53'

Luismi GutierrezPenalty

55'

60'

62'

67'

68'

J. Biabiany← M. Parra

68'

D. Ilahude← Ribeiro

68'

D. Soto← A. Jimenez

80'

J. Delmas

83'

E. Sanchez← M. Bassele

83'

R. Diz Acena← I. Rodriguez

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Antequera

Tarazona

1

Josele

16

⚽

Delmas

5

Traore

4

▼

Trilles

3

Chechu

21

▼

Nieto

8

▼

Ramon

6

Carrasco

23

Busi

19

⚽

Armero

17

▼

13

2

3

22

19

▼

Rodriguez

18

▼

Bassele

20

▼

Aspra

10

⚽2

Gutierrez

17

▼

Parra

9

▼

Ribeiro

11

Siddiki

Manager: Abraham Paz

24'▲D. Ramos←▼J. Aspra

68'▲J. Biabiany←▼M. Parra

68'▲D. Ilahude←▼Ribeiro

83'▲E. Sanchez←▼M. Bassele

83'▲R. Diz Acena←▼I. Rodriguez

Antequera substitutes

1Perez6Ramos7Biabiany8Clavijo14Sanchez15Gimenez16Gene21Chit23Acena24Ilahude

Manager: Barrero Juanma

43'▲Aguero←▼T. Ramon

68'▲D. Soto←▼A. Jimenez

90'▲A. Lopez←▼M. Trilles

90'▲I. Alonso←▼C. Nieto

Tarazona substitutes

13Amigo2Lopez7Soto10Aguero15Alonso20Martinez

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Antequera 2–3 Tarazona

Tarazona beat Antequera 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: S. Armero (34'), Luismi Gutierrez (53' pen, 55'), J. Delmas (60'), Aguero (90').

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.

Antequera vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Antequera 2–3 Tarazona