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Taraz vs Atyrau — Cup 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atyrau
Atyrau
7/30/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Taraz44%
×Draw28%
Atyrau28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.34
Atyrau
1.00

Taraz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.46
Atyrau
0.92

allows per match

Taraz
1.08
Atyrau
1.23

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Atyrau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
72%
Taraz or Atyrau
72%
Draw or Atyrau
56%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
21%
Atyrau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
74%
Taraz 2+ goals
39%
Taraz 3+ goals
15%
Atyrau 1+ goals
63%
Atyrau 2+ goals
26%
Atyrau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
61%
Atyrau (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Atyrau away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.46 + Atyrau defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atyrau attack 0.92 + Taraz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Taraz scores more
44%
level
28%
Atyrau scores more
28%

Taraz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Taraz 1–0 Atyrau

Taraz beat Atyrau 1-0 in Cup on July 30, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Taraz.