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Atyrau vs Taraz — Cup 2019

Atyrau
Atyrau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Taraz
Taraz
7/24/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Munayşı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Atyrau41%
×Draw23%
Taraz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrau
1.75
Taraz
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Atyrau
1.60
Taraz
1.90

allows per match

Atyrau
1.40
Taraz
1.90

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw
63%
Atyrau or Taraz
77%
Draw or Taraz
59%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+
21%
Taraz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals
83%
Atyrau 2+ goals
52%
Atyrau 3+ goals
25%
Taraz 1+ goals
81%
Taraz 2+ goals
49%
Taraz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)
53%
Taraz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 1.60 + Taraz defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Taraz attack 1.90 + Atyrau defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atyrau scores more
41%
level
23%
Taraz scores more
37%

Atyrau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atyrau vs Taraz

Taraz beat Atyrau 2-1 in Cup on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Munayşı in Atyrau.