Tapatío 4–0 Correcaminos Uat: Result & Stats

Tapatío

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Correcaminos Uat

4/12/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 14Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Tapatío53%

×Draw25%

Correcaminos Uat23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapatíoExpected goals in this matchCorrecaminos Uat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.99

Tapatío

1.65

Correcaminos Uat

0.99

Tapatío creates 67% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.05

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Tapatío

1.47

Correcaminos Uat

0.92

allows per match

Tapatío

1.05

Correcaminos Uat

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapatío+0.00on par

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapatío ↓

Correcaminos Uat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tapatío or draw

77%

Tapatío or Correcaminos Uat

75%

Draw or Correcaminos Uat

47%

Winning margin

Tapatío wins by 2+

28%

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tapatío 1+ goals

81%

Tapatío 2+ goals

49%

Tapatío 3+ goals

23%

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals

63%

Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals

26%

Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tapatío (draw refunded)

70%

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapatío at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Correcaminos Uat away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapatío attack 1.47 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Correcaminos Uat attack 0.92 + Tapatío defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tapatío scores more

53%

level

25%

Correcaminos Uat scores more

23%

Tapatío at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tapatío will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff