Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tapatío
Tapatío
2/28/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Correcaminos Uat40%
×Draw26%
Tapatío34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.44
Tapatío
1.30

Correcaminos Uat creates 11% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 104 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Tapatío
1.25

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Tapatío
1.45

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Tapatío+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Tapatío →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
66%
Correcaminos Uat or Tapatío
74%
Draw or Tapatío
60%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
19%
Tapatío wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
76%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
42%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
18%
Tapatío 1+ goals
73%
Tapatío 2+ goals
37%
Tapatío 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
54%
Tapatío (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Tapatío away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Tapatío defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tapatío attack 1.25 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
40%
level
26%
Tapatío scores more
34%

Correcaminos Uat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Correcaminos Uat 2–2 Tapatío

Correcaminos Uat and Tapatío drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 28, 2026.