Tapachula 0–1 Zacatepec 1948: Result & Stats

Tapachula

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zacatepec 1948

2/8/2017

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tapachula45%

×Draw25%

Zacatepec 194830%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapachulaExpected goals in this matchZacatepec 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Tapachula

1.52

Zacatepec 1948

1.18

Tapachula creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

1.74

creates per match

1.18

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tapachula

1.74

Zacatepec 1948

1.18

allows per match

Tapachula

1.18

Zacatepec 1948

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Zacatepec 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw

70%

Tapachula or Zacatepec 1948

75%

Draw or Zacatepec 1948

55%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+

22%

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals

78%

Tapachula 2+ goals

45%

Tapachula 3+ goals

20%

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals

69%

Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals

33%

Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)

60%

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Zacatepec 1948 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.74 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.18 + Tapachula defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tapachula scores more

45%

level

25%

Zacatepec 1948 scores more

30%

Tapachula at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff