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Tapachula vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
9/2/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tapachula48%
×Draw25%
Leones Negros UDG27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.59
Leones Negros UDG
1.11

Tapachula creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.77
Leones Negros UDG
1.05

allows per match

Tapachula
1.17
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
73%
Tapachula or Leones Negros UDG
75%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
52%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
25%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
80%
Tapachula 2+ goals
47%
Tapachula 3+ goals
21%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
67%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
30%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
65%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.77 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.05 + Tapachula defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tapachula scores more
48%
level
25%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
27%

Tapachula at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 0–3 Leones Negros UDG

Leones Negros UDG beat Tapachula 3-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).