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Leones Negros UDG vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Tapachula
Tapachula
2/17/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Leones Negros UDG54%
×Draw23%
Tapachula23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.84
Tapachula
1.11

Leones Negros UDG creates 66% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 30 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Tapachula
1.17

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Tapachula
1.93

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
77%
Leones Negros UDG or Tapachula
77%
Draw or Tapachula
46%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
31%
Tapachula wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
84%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
55%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
28%
Tapachula 1+ goals
67%
Tapachula 2+ goals
30%
Tapachula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
70%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Tapachula defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
54%
level
23%
Tapachula scores more
23%

Leones Negros UDG at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Leones Negros UDG 4–2 Tapachula

Leones Negros UDG beat Tapachula 4-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara).