Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tapachula vs Correcaminos Uat — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
10/5/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tapachula55%
×Draw23%
Correcaminos Uat22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.81
Correcaminos Uat
1.04

Tapachula creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 115 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.77
Correcaminos Uat
0.92

allows per match

Tapachula
1.17
Correcaminos Uat
1.84

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Correcaminos Uat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
78%
Tapachula or Correcaminos Uat
77%
Draw or Correcaminos Uat
45%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
31%
Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
84%
Tapachula 2+ goals
54%
Tapachula 3+ goals
27%
Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
65%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
28%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
72%
Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Correcaminos Uat away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.77 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Correcaminos Uat attack 0.92 + Tapachula defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tapachula scores more
55%
level
23%
Correcaminos Uat scores more
22%

Tapachula at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tapachula vs Correcaminos Uat

Tapachula and Correcaminos Uat drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez).