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Correcaminos Uat vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tapachula
Tapachula
2/2/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Correcaminos Uat49%
×Draw23%
Tapachula27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.77
Tapachula
1.26

Correcaminos Uat creates 40% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 24 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Tapachula
1.17

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Tapachula
2.13

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
73%
Correcaminos Uat or Tapachula
77%
Draw or Tapachula
51%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
27%
Tapachula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
83%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
53%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
26%
Tapachula 1+ goals
72%
Tapachula 2+ goals
36%
Tapachula 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
64%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Tapachula defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
49%
level
23%
Tapachula scores more
27%

Correcaminos Uat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Correcaminos Uat 3 – 2 Tapachula

Correcaminos Uat beat Tapachula 3-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria).