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Tanzania Prisons vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tabora United
Tabora United
2/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tanzania Prisons45%
×Draw29%
Tabora United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.25
Tabora United
0.88

Tanzania Prisons creates 42% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.95
Tabora United
0.74

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.02
Tabora United
1.54

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
74%
Tanzania Prisons or Tabora United
71%
Draw or Tabora United
55%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
20%
Tabora United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
71%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
36%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
13%
Tabora United 1+ goals
59%
Tabora United 2+ goals
22%
Tabora United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
63%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Tabora United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tabora United attack 0.74 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
45%
level
29%
Tabora United scores more
26%

Tanzania Prisons at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Tabora United

Tanzania Prisons beat Tabora United 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.