Tabora United 0–0 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

Tabora United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tanzania Prisons

9/14/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 4Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tabora United42%

×Draw30%

Tanzania Prisons28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tabora UnitedExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.90

Tabora United

1.16

Tanzania Prisons

0.90

Tabora United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 114 away

1.07

creates per match

0.75

1.04

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tabora United

1.07

Tanzania Prisons

0.75

allows per match

Tabora United

1.04

Tanzania Prisons

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw

72%

Tabora United or Tanzania Prisons

70%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

58%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+

18%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals

69%

Tabora United 2+ goals

32%

Tabora United 3+ goals

11%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

59%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

23%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)

60%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.07 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Tabora United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tabora United scores more

42%

level

30%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

28%

Tabora United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff