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Tanzania Prisons vs Singida Black Stars — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
12/16/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tanzania Prisons33%
×Draw28%
Singida Black Stars39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.11
Singida Black Stars
1.25

Singida Black Stars creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.97
Singida Black Stars
1.47

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Singida Black Stars
1.26

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Singida Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
61%
Tanzania Prisons or Singida Black Stars
72%
Draw or Singida Black Stars
67%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
13%
Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
67%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
30%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
10%
Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
71%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
36%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
45%
Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.97 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Singida Black Stars attack 1.47 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
33%
level
28%
Singida Black Stars scores more
39%

Singida Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Singida Black Stars

Singida Black Stars beat Tanzania Prisons 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.