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Singida Black Stars vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
M. Nduwumwe 61', 2'
K. Juma 23'
K. Sengati 49'
6/24/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28Airtel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Singida Black Stars63%
×Draw22%
Tanzania Prisons15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.91
Tanzania Prisons
0.82

Singida Black Stars creates 133% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
2.43
Tanzania Prisons
0.78

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.86
Tanzania Prisons
1.39

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
85%
Singida Black Stars or Tanzania Prisons
78%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
37%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
38%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
85%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
57%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
30%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
56%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
20%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 2.43 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.91

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.78 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
63%
level
22%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
15%

Singida Black Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Nduwumwe
23'
K. Juma↳ E. Keyekeh
49'
K. Sengati
61'
M. Nduwumwe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singida Black Stars vs Tanzania Prisons

Singida Black Stars beat Tanzania Prisons 3-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Nduwumwe (2', 61'), K. Juma (23'), K. Sengati (49').

The match was played at Airtel Stadium in Singida.