Tanzania Prisons 1–0 Pamba Jiji: Result & Stats

Tanzania Prisons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pamba Jiji

12/26/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 16Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tanzania Prisons53%

×Draw30%

Pamba Jiji17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanzania PrisonsExpected goals in this matchPamba Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.58

Tanzania Prisons

1.27

Pamba Jiji

0.58

Tanzania Prisons creates 119% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.45

0.72

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons

1.00

Pamba Jiji

0.45

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons

0.72

Pamba Jiji

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Pamba Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw

83%

Tanzania Prisons or Pamba Jiji

70%

Draw or Pamba Jiji

47%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

25%

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

72%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

36%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

14%

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

44%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

12%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

76%

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 1.00 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pamba Jiji attack 0.45 + Tanzania Prisons defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more

53%

level

30%

Pamba Jiji scores more

17%

Tanzania Prisons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff