Pamba Jiji 0–0 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

0 – 0

Tanzania Prisons

8/16/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 1CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pamba Jiji49%

×Draw28%

Tanzania Prisons23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.82

Pamba Jiji

1.35

Tanzania Prisons

0.82

Pamba Jiji creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

0.75

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.40

Tanzania Prisons

0.75

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

0.90

Tanzania Prisons

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

77%

Pamba Jiji or Tanzania Prisons

72%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

51%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

24%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

74%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

39%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

15%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

56%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

20%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

68%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.40 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

49%

level

28%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

23%

Pamba Jiji at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff