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Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
7/8/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Semi-finalsSokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tanzania Prisons38%
×Draw33%
Mbeya City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
0.96
Mbeya City
0.81

Tanzania Prisons creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.92
Mbeya City
1.29

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.33
Mbeya City
1.00

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
71%
Tanzania Prisons or Mbeya City
67%
Draw or Mbeya City
62%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
14%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
62%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
25%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
7%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
56%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
19%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
56%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.33 · 12 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.92 + Mbeya City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mbeya City attack 1.29 + Tanzania Prisons defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
38%
level
33%
Mbeya City scores more
29%

Tanzania Prisons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
58'

Possession

52%Tanzania

Shots

0Tanzania

Statistics

TanzaniaMbeya
Overview
52%Possession48%
0Total Shots1
6Corners0
Shots
0Total Shots1
0On Target0
0Off Target1
0Blocked0
Passing
52%Possession48%
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Tanzania Prisons and Mbeya City drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on July 8, 2026.

Tanzania Prisons controlled possession (52%) and registered 0 shots to 1.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.