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Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
B. Mwalubunju 60'
S. Mbangula 46'
Z. Mayombya 27'
12/25/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mbeya City41%
×Draw29%
Tanzania Prisons29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.19
Tanzania Prisons
0.95

Mbeya City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
0.90
Tanzania Prisons
0.89

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.00
Tanzania Prisons
1.47

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
71%
Mbeya City or Tanzania Prisons
71%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
59%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
18%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
70%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
33%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
12%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
61%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
25%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
59%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.90 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.89 + Mbeya City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mbeya City scores more
41%
level
29%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
29%

Mbeya City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Z. Mayombya
46'
S. Mbangula
60'
B. Mwalubunju

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons

Tanzania Prisons beat Mbeya City 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 25, 2022.

Goals: Z. Mayombya (27'), S. Mbangula (46'), B. Mwalubunju (60').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.