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Tanzania Prisons vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
K. Omary 63' (OG)
S. Mgandila 20'
D. Richard 14'
5/20/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tanzania Prisons41%
×Draw32%
Mashujaa27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.07
Mashujaa
0.81

Tanzania Prisons creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.97
Mashujaa
0.59

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Mashujaa
1.18

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
73%
Tanzania Prisons or Mashujaa
68%
Draw or Mashujaa
59%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
17%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
66%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
29%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
9%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
56%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
19%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
60%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.97 + Mashujaa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mashujaa attack 0.59 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
41%
level
32%
Mashujaa scores more
27%

Tanzania Prisons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Richard
20'
S. Mgandila
41'
J. Elifadhili
63'
K. OmaryOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Mashujaa

Mashujaa beat Tanzania Prisons 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Richard (14'), S. Mgandila (20'), K. Omary (63' o.g.).

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.