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Mashujaa vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
8/23/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mashujaa53%
×Draw30%
Tanzania Prisons18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.25
Tanzania Prisons
0.59

Mashujaa creates 112% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.91
Tanzania Prisons
0.66

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.52
Tanzania Prisons
1.59

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
82%
Mashujaa or Tanzania Prisons
70%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
47%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
24%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
71%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
36%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
13%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
45%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
12%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
75%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.52 · 23 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.91 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.66 + Mashujaa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mashujaa scores more
53%
level
30%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
18%

Mashujaa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Mashujaa 0–0 Tanzania Prisons

Mashujaa and Tanzania Prisons drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.