Tanzania Prisons 1–1 KMC: Result & Stats

Tanzania Prisons

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KMC

I. Abraham 81'

M. Abdikarim 10'

4/12/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 22Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tanzania Prisons48%

×Draw28%

KMC24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanzania PrisonsExpected goals in this matchKMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.84

Tanzania Prisons

1.32

KMC

0.84

Tanzania Prisons creates 57% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 38 away

1.03

creates per match

0.63

1.06

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons

1.03

KMC

0.63

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons

1.06

KMC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

KMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw

76%

Tanzania Prisons or KMC

72%

Draw or KMC

52%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

22%

KMC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

73%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

38%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

15%

KMC 1+ goals

57%

KMC 2+ goals

21%

KMC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

67%

KMC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

KMC away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 1.03 + KMC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

KMC attack 0.63 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more

48%

level

28%

KMC scores more

24%

Tanzania Prisons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Abdikarim

81'

I. Abraham

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff