Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KMC vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
S. I. Chilunda 66', 42'
I. Ahmed 55'
H. Chanongo 83', 63'
4/2/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 24KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

KMC39%
×Draw28%
Tanzania Prisons33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.24
Tanzania Prisons
1.10

KMC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

KMC
0.91
Tanzania Prisons
0.69

allows per match

KMC
1.51
Tanzania Prisons
1.56

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KMC or draw
67%
KMC or Tanzania Prisons
72%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
61%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
17%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
71%
KMC 2+ goals
35%
KMC 3+ goals
13%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
67%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
30%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
55%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.91 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.69 + KMC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KMC scores more
39%
level
28%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
33%

KMC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
S. I. Chilunda
55'
I. Ahmed
63'
H. Chanongo↳ Amadu
66'
S. I. Chilunda
83'
H. Chanongo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KMC vs Tanzania Prisons

KMC beat Tanzania Prisons 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 2, 2025.

Goals: S. I. Chilunda (42', 66'), I. Ahmed (55'), H. Chanongo (63', 83').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.