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Tanzania Prisons vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
Unknown 46'
O. Adam 11'
E. John 71'
S. Oduro 57'
D. Lyanga 45+3'
K. Yusuph 34'
11/16/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 12Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tanzania Prisons42%
×Draw30%
Geita Gold29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.17
Geita Gold
0.92

Tanzania Prisons creates 27% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.95
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.02
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
71%
Tanzania Prisons or Geita Gold
70%
Draw or Geita Gold
58%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
18%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
69%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
33%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
11%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
60%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
23%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
59%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
42%
level
30%
Geita Gold scores more
29%

Tanzania Prisons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
O. Adam
34'
K. Yusuph
45+3'
D. Lyanga↳ S. Ntibazonkiza
46'
57'
S. Oduro
71'
E. John↳ S. Ntibazonkiza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tanzania Prisons 2–4 Geita Gold

Geita Gold beat Tanzania Prisons 4-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 16, 2022.

Goals: O. Adam (11'), K. Yusuph (34'), D. Lyanga (45+3'), ? (46'), S. Oduro (57'), E. John (71').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.