Geita Gold 1–3 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

Geita Gold

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tanzania Prisons

4/24/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 27Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold42%

×Draw30%

Tanzania Prisons28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geita GoldExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.90

Geita Gold

1.17

Tanzania Prisons

0.90

Geita Gold creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 114 away

1.09

creates per match

0.75

1.04

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Geita Gold

1.09

Tanzania Prisons

0.75

allows per match

Geita Gold

1.04

Tanzania Prisons

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw

72%

Geita Gold or Tanzania Prisons

70%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

58%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+

18%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals

69%

Geita Gold 2+ goals

33%

Geita Gold 3+ goals

11%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

59%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

23%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)

60%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Geita Gold scores more

42%

level

30%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

28%

Geita Gold at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff