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Tanzania Prisons vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
Unknown 45'
Unknown 90'
B. Msimu 53', 2'
S. Kichuya 43'
2/10/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tanzania Prisons42%
×Draw30%
Coastal Union28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.14
Coastal Union
0.87

Tanzania Prisons creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Coastal Union
0.71

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Coastal Union
1.25

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
72%
Tanzania Prisons or Coastal Union
70%
Draw or Coastal Union
58%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
18%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
68%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
32%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
11%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
58%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
22%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
60%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 1.03 + Coastal Union defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Coastal Union attack 0.71 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
42%
level
30%
Coastal Union scores more
28%

Tanzania Prisons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
B. Msimu
43'
S. Kichuya
45'
53'
B. Msimu
58'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tanzania Prisons 1–4 Coastal Union

Coastal Union beat Tanzania Prisons 4-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 10, 2026.

Goals: B. Msimu (2', 53'), S. Kichuya (43'), ? (45', 90').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.