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Tanzania Prisons vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
B. Ngassa 76'
E. Mwashilindi 27'
B. Suleiman 90'
5/12/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tanzania Prisons41%
×Draw30%
Coastal Union29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.15
Coastal Union
0.93

Tanzania Prisons creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Coastal Union
0.79

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.06
Coastal Union
1.26

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
71%
Tanzania Prisons or Coastal Union
70%
Draw or Coastal Union
59%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
17%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
68%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
32%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
11%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
61%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
24%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
58%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 1.03 + Coastal Union defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Coastal Union attack 0.79 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
41%
level
30%
Coastal Union scores more
29%

Tanzania Prisons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
E. Mwashilindi
76'
B. Ngassa
90'
B. Suleiman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanzania Prisons 2 – 1 Coastal Union

Tanzania Prisons beat Coastal Union 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 12, 2025.

Goals: E. Mwashilindi (27'), B. Ngassa (76'), B. Suleiman (90').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.