Tanta SC 2–3 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

Tanta SC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Zamalek SC

1/5/2020

Premier League · Round 12El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC23%

×Draw27%

Zamalek SC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanta SCExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.40

Tanta SC

0.85

Zamalek SC

1.40

Zamalek SC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 125 away

0.76

creates per match

1.51

1.29

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Tanta SC

0.76

Zamalek SC

1.51

allows per match

Tanta SC

1.29

Zamalek SC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw

50%

Tanta SC or Zamalek SC

73%

Draw or Zamalek SC

77%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+

7%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals

57%

Tanta SC 2+ goals

21%

Tanta SC 3+ goals

5%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

75%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

41%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)

31%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Zamalek SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Zamalek SC attack 1.51 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tanta SC scores more

23%

level

27%

Zamalek SC scores more

50%

Zamalek SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff