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Tanta SC vs Smouha SC — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Smouha SC
Smouha SC
11/27/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC30%
×Draw30%
Smouha SC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
0.96
Smouha SC
1.16

Smouha SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 127 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Smouha SC
1.02

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Smouha SC
1.17

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Smouha SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
60%
Tanta SC or Smouha SC
70%
Draw or Smouha SC
70%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
11%
Smouha SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
62%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
25%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
7%
Smouha SC 1+ goals
69%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
32%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
43%
Smouha SC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Smouha SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tanta SC scores more
30%
level
30%
Smouha SC scores more
40%

Smouha SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tanta SC 2–2 Smouha SC

Tanta SC and Smouha SC drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.