Smouha SC 3–0 Tanta SC: Result & Stats

Smouha SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tanta SC

8/30/2020

Premier League · Round 23Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smouha SC56%

×Draw25%

Tanta SC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Smouha SCExpected goals in this matchTanta SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.82

Smouha SC

1.59

Tanta SC

0.82

Smouha SC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

0.53

1.11

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Smouha SC

1.25

Tanta SC

0.53

allows per match

Smouha SC

1.11

Tanta SC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par

Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

Tanta SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw

81%

Smouha SC or Tanta SC

75%

Draw or Tanta SC

44%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+

30%

Tanta SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals

80%

Smouha SC 2+ goals

47%

Smouha SC 3+ goals

21%

Tanta SC 1+ goals

56%

Tanta SC 2+ goals

20%

Tanta SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)

74%

Tanta SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.25 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Smouha SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Smouha SC scores more

56%

level

25%

Tanta SC scores more

19%

Smouha SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff