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Tanta SC vs Masr — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Masr
Masr
9/19/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC31%
×Draw29%
Masr39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
1.00
Masr
1.16

Masr creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Masr
1.03

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Masr
1.24

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Masr+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Masr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
61%
Tanta SC or Masr
71%
Draw or Masr
69%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
12%
Masr wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
63%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
26%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
8%
Masr 1+ goals
69%
Masr 2+ goals
32%
Masr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
44%
Masr (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Masr away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Masr defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Masr attack 1.03 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tanta SC scores more
31%
level
29%
Masr scores more
39%

Masr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanta SC 0 – 0 Masr

Tanta SC and Masr drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.