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Masr vs Tanta SC — Premier League 2018

Masr
Masr
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tanta SC
Tanta SC
12/30/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masr54%
×Draw26%
Tanta SC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masr
1.48
Tanta SC
0.77

Masr creates 92% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

creates per match

Masr
1.02
Tanta SC
0.53

allows per match

Masr
1.00
Tanta SC
1.94

finishing

Masr+0.00on par
Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Tanta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Masr or draw
80%
Masr or Tanta SC
74%
Draw or Tanta SC
46%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+
28%
Tanta SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals
77%
Masr 2+ goals
43%
Masr 3+ goals
19%
Tanta SC 1+ goals
54%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
18%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)
73%
Tanta SC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Masr scores more
54%
level
26%
Tanta SC scores more
20%

Masr at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Masr 2 – 1 Tanta SC

Masr beat Tanta SC 2-1 in Premier League on December 30, 2019.

The match was played at Cairo Military Academy Stadium in Cairo.