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Tanta SC vs Enppi — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Enppi
Enppi
2/10/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC30%
×Draw29%
Enppi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
0.97
Enppi
1.18

Enppi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Enppi
1.07

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Enppi
1.18

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
59%
Tanta SC or Enppi
71%
Draw or Enppi
70%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
11%
Enppi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
62%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
25%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
7%
Enppi 1+ goals
69%
Enppi 2+ goals
33%
Enppi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
42%
Enppi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Enppi defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Enppi attack 1.07 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tanta SC scores more
30%
level
29%
Enppi scores more
41%

Enppi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanta SC 0 – 0 Enppi

Tanta SC and Enppi drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 10, 2020.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.