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Enppi vs Tanta SC — Premier League 2018

Enppi
Enppi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tanta SC
Tanta SC
10/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Enppi54%
×Draw26%
Tanta SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enppi
1.48
Tanta SC
0.76

Enppi creates 95% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

creates per match

Enppi
1.02
Tanta SC
0.53

allows per match

Enppi
0.99
Tanta SC
1.94

finishing

Enppi+0.00on par
Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enppi ↓

Tanta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enppi or draw
81%
Enppi or Tanta SC
74%
Draw or Tanta SC
46%

Winning margin

Enppi wins by 2+
28%
Tanta SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Enppi 1+ goals
77%
Enppi 2+ goals
43%
Enppi 3+ goals
19%
Tanta SC 1+ goals
53%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
18%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Enppi (draw refunded)
74%
Tanta SC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enppi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enppi attack 1.02 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Enppi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Enppi scores more
54%
level
26%
Tanta SC scores more
19%

Enppi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enppi vs Tanta SC

Tanta SC beat Enppi 2-1 in Premier League on October 30, 2020.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.