Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tanta SC vs Aswan Sc — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aswan Sc
Aswan Sc
12/24/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC36%
×Draw29%
Aswan Sc34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
1.10
Aswan Sc
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Aswan Sc
0.84

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Aswan Sc
1.45

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Aswan Sc+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Aswan Sc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
66%
Tanta SC or Aswan Sc
71%
Draw or Aswan Sc
64%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
15%
Aswan Sc wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
67%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
30%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
10%
Aswan Sc 1+ goals
65%
Aswan Sc 2+ goals
29%
Aswan Sc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
51%
Aswan Sc (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Aswan Sc away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Aswan Sc defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Aswan Sc attack 0.84 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tanta SC scores more
36%
level
29%
Aswan Sc scores more
34%

Tanta SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tanta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tanta SC 2–2 Aswan Sc

Tanta SC and Aswan Sc drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 24, 2019.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.