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Aswan Sc vs Tanta SC — Premier League 2018

Aswan Sc
Aswan Sc
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tanta SC
Tanta SC
9/14/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Aswan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aswan Sc48%
×Draw26%
Tanta SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aswan Sc
1.52
Tanta SC
1.07

Aswan Sc creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aswan Sc
1.10
Tanta SC
0.53

allows per match

Aswan Sc
1.61
Tanta SC
1.94

finishing

Aswan Sc+0.00on par
Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aswan Sc ↓

Tanta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aswan Sc or draw
73%
Aswan Sc or Tanta SC
74%
Draw or Tanta SC
52%

Winning margin

Aswan Sc wins by 2+
24%
Tanta SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aswan Sc 1+ goals
78%
Aswan Sc 2+ goals
45%
Aswan Sc 3+ goals
20%
Tanta SC 1+ goals
66%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
29%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aswan Sc (draw refunded)
64%
Tanta SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aswan Sc at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aswan Sc attack 1.10 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Aswan Sc defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aswan Sc scores more
48%
level
26%
Tanta SC scores more
27%

Aswan Sc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aswan Sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aswan Sc 4–0 Tanta SC

Aswan Sc beat Tanta SC 4-0 in Premier League on September 14, 2020.

The match was played at Aswan Stadium in Aswan.