Tanta SC 0–1 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

Tanta SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahly

9/26/2020

Premier League · Round 30WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC18%

×Draw26%

Al Ahly57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanta SCExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.54

Tanta SC

0.73

Al Ahly

1.54

Al Ahly creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 128 away

0.76

creates per match

1.78

1.29

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Tanta SC

0.76

Al Ahly

1.78

allows per match

Tanta SC

1.29

Al Ahly

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–116%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw

43%

Tanta SC or Al Ahly

74%

Draw or Al Ahly

82%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+

5%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals

52%

Tanta SC 2+ goals

17%

Tanta SC 3+ goals

4%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

79%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

45%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)

24%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.71 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Al Ahly defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Al Ahly attack 1.78 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tanta SC scores more

18%

level

26%

Al Ahly scores more

57%

Al Ahly at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff