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Al Ahly vs Tanta SC — Premier League 2018

Al Ahly
Al Ahly
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tanta SC
Tanta SC
1/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Ahly72%
×Draw19%
Tanta SC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly
2.04
Tanta SC
0.55

Al Ahly creates 271% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Ahly
2.13
Tanta SC
0.53

allows per match

Al Ahly
0.56
Tanta SC
1.94

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par
Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Tanta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw
91%
Al Ahly or Tanta SC
81%
Draw or Tanta SC
28%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+
47%
Tanta SC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals
87%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
60%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
33%
Tanta SC 1+ goals
42%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
11%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)
89%
Tanta SC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.13 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Al Ahly scores more
72%
level
19%
Tanta SC scores more
9%

Al Ahly at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahly 5–0 Tanta SC

Al Ahly beat Tanta SC 5-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.