Tanjong Pagar 0–5 Balestier Khalsa: Result & Stats

Tanjong Pagar

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Balestier Khalsa

10/28/2024

Premier League · Round 20Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tanjong Pagar35%

×Draw20%

Balestier Khalsa45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanjong PagarExpected goals in this matchBalestier Khalsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.19

Tanjong Pagar

1.92

Balestier Khalsa

2.19

Balestier Khalsa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 82 away

1.39

creates per match

1.88

2.50

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Tanjong Pagar

1.39

Balestier Khalsa

1.88

allows per match

Tanjong Pagar

2.50

Balestier Khalsa

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanjong Pagar ↓

Balestier Khalsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Tanjong Pagar or draw

55%

Tanjong Pagar or Balestier Khalsa

80%

Draw or Balestier Khalsa

65%

Winning margin

Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+

18%

Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals

85%

Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals

57%

Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals

30%

Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals

89%

Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals

64%

Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)

44%

Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanjong Pagar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 70 matches

Balestier Khalsa away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.39 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Balestier Khalsa attack 1.88 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tanjong Pagar scores more

35%

level

20%

Balestier Khalsa scores more

45%

Balestier Khalsa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Balestier Khalsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff